https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/28/politics/kavanaugh-senate-judiciary-vote/index.html
Is this 4d chess
Well, guess he’s not getting confirmed. He’ll be asked to withdraw by Monday.
I'm reading through this
It's a pretty nice article
Skimmed it. Doesn’t seem to take a stand on whether it was the right decision for Flake, which is okay. I think the people praising Flake for his action are severely misguided, though. If he believed Ford’s testimony, he should’ve just killed the nom. FBI investigation will be inconclusive, he knows it, so does everyone else. It’s been too long for them to get really hard evidence out of it. Scope will be limited due to the timeframe. Then McConnell will be able to wrangle up the 50 votes he needs and Kav will be a justice. Flake gets to play “moderate resistance member” to voters while everyone in power knows that he’s not doing anything real.
With the White House switching on him though, I think Kav will be withdrawing at the beginning of next week, so it’s all moot.
Just so u know our claims for bragging rights were locked in as of post #1047
Any predictions that he will not be confirmed due to new developments which contradict your earlier claim will earn only half points.
I’m conceding it to you. He won’t be confirmed for fucking sure with the white house backing the fbi
True though. I don’t know that WH is “switched” as much as that theyre just trying to control the narrative and make it look like Trump is being really proactive.
In terms of the investigation, I don’t think it’s fair to say “If he believed the testimony etc etc.” These are career legal people. They believe in evidence, investigation, conviction, they aren’t evaluating based on whether they find 1 witness believable. Clearly he felt there was enough there to act on and gather further intelligence (mainly interviewing this one guy who was allegedly in the room during the crime) and he didn’t want to act one way or another without knowing more.
I think it’s a very reasonable reaction and he did well to not just cater to party lines. Keep in mind there are 49(?) other Senators who just played exactly to the party line. It sounds like it was his actions that set this in motion and he deserves to be commended for that.
Let’s make another bet. I bet the investigation will turn up sufficient evidence that conservatives (non-delusional only) would not have backed him either way. But I believe you’re right that he’ll withdraw.
I expect if he actually did it that there is further meaty evidence to support this and an FBI investigation could definitely unearth that.
Maybe they could just interview him and he’d say Yep. I Did It.
The problem here is that there aren't any charges against Kavanaugh. The legal paradigm isn't evidence, investigation, conviction. We're operating under the legislative paradigm of optics, and Flake knows that. He's a career politician and always has been (there's a difference between career legal and career politician, though there is overlap. Flake is firmly and only in the career politician camp, though).
Only the committee has voted. The rest of the senate hasn't done anything yet. They could've killed this in committee if they didn't fit Kav was fit. It's their responsibility to do that, especially when he almost surely will pass a full Senate vote.
they should’ve nominated Amy Coney Barrett. she’s just as crazy and presumably hasn’t raped any women
I’ll take that bet. I doubt anything substantial related to sexual assault comes out of the investigation (depending on how the FBI is tasked, they may find something out re: his other shady dealings such as disappearing debt, spending hundreds of thousands on baseball tickets, etc, but that is not covered under my acquisition to this bet).
Shit did you guys know that there’s no requirement for a license for a rifle in NY outside of NYC?
Might cop one of those tbh
How much did he spend on baseball tickets? Season tickets are pricey especially if you get good seats/a box.
shit this is trump’s second supreme court placement isn’t it
it’s reagan all over again
Yeah, season tickets are. The problem was he was hundreds of thousands in debt, it all disappeared, and his explanation was “I was buying season tickets for friends and they paid me back.” Sure, it’s possible, but tax returns, receipts, etc should probably verify that and confirm that he didn’t have some other debt that just got paid off by some benefactor.
we’d probably want to qualify what “substantial” is
I’d consider mike judge’s testimony supporting or at least mildly supporting Dr. Ford to be substantial in that it significantly increases the strength of her testimony and the likelihood that he did it
Wonder what else they could possibly drag out of this 35 years later. Further details about his life and habits at the time? Sounds like he was kind of a partier and was accused of being party to other assaults as well. Maybe he’s a bona fide rape culture nomination lol. That’d be some shit
isn’t sports tickets a classic money laundering scheme anyway
is that proprietary knowledge the public isn’t aware of
Yes, I'd consider Judge corroborating (even just mildly) Ford's testimony to be substantial
yeah sports is a very classic money laundering avenue.