eh i doubt it
recession? maybe. full on economic collapse? naw
if its not as bad as 2008 idgaf
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Look at what led to the great depression
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Ok, I'll bite because you sound like me more than 10 years ago and it's kind of cute but here's my take:
It won't be like a great depression because of several factors:
- Larger presence of the fed in banking and money supply than in 1920s i.e. ability to step in and 'fix' the market (2008 recession/crash is a good example of this).
- Much more regulations and liquidity requirements not creating the same level of risk.
- Electronic systems which further compound on top of everything else making the system even more resilient.
Just to name a few which I think are big
Basically, what you are basing your prediction on are fundamentals and that is fine, fundamentals sometimes work, sometimes they don't. In the case of the fed, I don't think fundamentals work because the government is well-prepared compared to the great depression because they have history to go off and learn from, also much higher reach because of it and effectively a 'cheat code' programmed into the system called TARP/QE/ZIRP which will make the situation much 'worse' from a debt standpoint, but not lead to a total collapse of asset prices like you are suggesting.
I think the best approach is a balanced one. I am holding both cash and assets. I think a better rendition to use as a model of what might happen in the future would be something similar to the French revolution if you examine what crippling debt can do to a government, but again, the ability of the USA to just snap fingers and make more money since we're not on the gold standard but also have a huge army/military to literally just swoop in and take shit if we want (Greenland/Canada) also makes it highly unlike we will encounter such a problem because you can always print more money and throw it out at the angry people to make them go away.
We are witnessing something unlike anything we have ever seen which history has never seen, so we can find a lot of moments in time where there are a few similarities and shared features, but they're still totally different events, like just because 2 people are white, male, and have the same colored eyes and hair doesn't mean they're the same person, you know what I mean? There's a lot more to it than that before you can make a statement like that.
Lol
Yeah man the fed will just lower interest rates. Everything will be fine. Of course. Im so daft. Things ARE different this time. You should go long.
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Its almost like we forgot that 0% interest rates arent actually good or whatever
You will have to pay 60% more for our goods. Good luck living your life like that
We don't import American goods here.
Good luck paying 65% more for cheeseburgers.
I have never been in a McDonalds in my life.
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Frankly the US is sick of you taking advantage of us with your unfair trade policies.
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Cheeseburgers dont come from Mcdonalds only you idiot. They come from cows.