Tipping a millionaire is nuts but he earned it ig
Yea next time I make 20k due to your advice I'll tip you again.
You think a ■■■■■■ like me reads?
Youre going to have to apologize to me before we do further business
I'm not a moderator
1 Like
Have you even said thank you?
2 Likes
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I own 15 puts at 3.80 for NG. Weather forecast is all warm for the next 2 weeks. I expect this shit to drop like a stone down to 3.30
I bought CL puts for 66.5 like 14 puts. This is a terrible trade and I feel terrible about it. I think it can go up or down. No real conviction behind this so I don't know why I put so much in. I also don't want to take a loss right now and have it rip down but I'm looking down the barrel and playing Russian roulette for no reason when I should just be sitting back and watching the market instead of trading. Really stupid shit. Market opens in 15 minutes and I'm ready to bail out if it starts moving up further.
Ok in the span of me writing that post CL just dropped 25 cents and I'm up 500 bucks now instead of down 2k. I dance to the rain. Dance. Dance.
The time decay on these options is nuts I am never going to buy dailies again until right before market open. I was even when it was 66.50 now I'm still negative and it is at 66.40 lol I think I need to bail out I think the market is going sideways today and I am gonna get fucked.
How much did you make?
Shorting anything ever is a horrible idea. Ill make money when the market goes up. Making money while it goes down is 10x harder
I tried to trade Es before and lost a lot of money. Honestly too many things move it and i don't follow all of the dates to follow like fed meetings and CPI report, job report, etc.. It's just too much shit so I don't have a lot of interest in it because I don't know how things should be impacted. I think CL and and NG are pretty simple and easy to follow.
The best i can do when markets go down is "i told you so"
Im not putting my own skin in the game
It was a horrible idea before but times have changed. No more free money to pump up the market like before.
I do think shorting is pretty decent right now. I was considering shorting tesla but the options are so insanely priced I don't want to bother.
The appeal of future options for CL is that I think the option price to leverage ratio is some of the best around.
If you're gonna go ■■■■■■ and make a high risk bet, surely you want to bet at the table that pays 3:2 blackjack and not 6:5 even though the odds are exactly the same... Basically the same idea for options, future options are cheaper so I prefer them to stocks because I think stocks tend to have higher Vega priced in.
You have to understand the mechanics of bear markets more though man.
Bear markets experience more intense parabolic rallies than bull markets.
When the market is skewed short, and investors are conditioned (over the course of 100 years) that stocks go up, they arent perma bears; theyre buyers at lower prices.
When "good news" occurs, market participants are conditioned to immediately re-enter positions. This causes a feedback loop in which shorts are closed (a market buy), other shorters are incentivized to close their positions in a panic (a market buy), investors fomo into strength and so on.
It is not uncommon for extended and prolonged bear markets to experience 10+ 20-30% rallies, which are eventually faded and new lows are later created.
Shorting is considerably more difficult. Individual economic data have a much highter amplitude of effect. There is more emotion. Your time frames have to be shorter, and you have to not be greedy.
The implication that no more free money is available is also likely to be false. Markets become addicted to QE. When downturns occur, investors go for blood. Unrest occurs.
QE is heroin and extremely hard to kick. Few nations actually manage to do so once it occurs