Simple Shootout - Game thread

Mafia
84

To not lose the game on mislynch, ALL the following events must occur:

  • We Do Not Lynch Town Gunsmith
  • Town Gunsmith Does Not Target Scum
  • Mafia Night Kill Does Not Target Gun Town
  • Mafia Day Shot Does not Target Gun Town
85

Do the math and tell me what are the odds for all 4 conditions above to occur.

86

did you think i was joking? you've never talked like your britches were (too) big

gunna have to go cross referencing the old games now

87

Yes please read old games where I act just like this as town

88

Meds.

89

The answer is 30% by the way @Osiris

90

Skimmed through

I think the nma logic makes sense on no lynch because of the low player count, chance of exposing gs before d2. but he seemed to backtrack on the initial flawed point that weā€™d just conduct a lynch on non gun owners because as he said mafia partner might get a gun.

With that in mind initial reads

Matticus safe posting

Osiris unsafe callout posting (out of pocket as O scum so likely towny)

Nma kinda plays the way he does on both sides but would be incentivized to suggest a failing strategy to town as scum so I guess thatā€™s worth keeping in mind for reading him today, especially if you disagree with his logic

Nyte skipping plan verification or sussing of Nma is meh. I swear sheā€™s engaged on how town should behave in the past as town. It would be in her best interest as scum to just make Osiris seem sussy and pocket Nma since Nma will try to strong arm either way

91

RETA RD

92

????????????? NO I DIDNT?????????

93

How do you "Disagree" with the numbers

94

You initially stated the plan as such and then acknowledged that scum could get gun

Maybe I misread idk

95

I acknowledged that and still recognize that it's better odds nonetheless. I said this to Osiris.
Either way we will be shooting/lynching Osiris tomorrow after the no lynch since he won't be given a gun.

1 Like
96

Like many of the other players minus probably kkat Iā€™m a tone/react reader over a setup Mather. Also to be totally honest didnā€™t even try to verify your math. I just think itā€™s probably true that lynching a town player in a small game on d1 would probably be super problematic and itā€™s the highest likelihood outcome.

Let me know if you disagree in the comments below.

97

I am so fudging tired bros I wish we started on Friday night

98

Put your vote please so we don't have to wait 20 hours for EoD.

99

Tired? You don't have a job!

100

I mean i think itā€™s also generally true that rushing d1 nolynch accomplishes nothing in the potential tone reads dept. it also makes me feel uncomfy to think about rushing a verdict on any day when pressured. Always makes me feel like Iā€™m being deceived

101

Probably will end up doing it anyways so we can get this game over with and do another but whatever ima be back

102

Actually it's the opposite: if you don't nolynch asap you are risking your mind and tone reads being poisoned, and are subjecting yourself to more chances of falling prey to cognitive biases and fallacies...

103

Another way to look at it is that we couldā€™ve skipped this entire dialogue, responses to you and no lynched but then I wouldnā€™t have found Osiris towny. It did something! Maybe itā€™ll do something again.