Smoke Signals [DAY 3]

Right, and like a big part of that was on him since he had the lowest post count in the game.

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Plus I think the two ideas can, and often do, evolve simultaneously: Who is town and how they approach the town core.

Case in point, when I asked Wingi if he wanted to join the tribe with me and Jones it was more to develop a read on him.

My early reads:
Wingding was distracted and didn't have time to think this out. He ran out of time. And he voted no on the smoke signal. Town tell.
Insom seems town by his interactions.
Osiris seems town to me, but I am not sure. I want to believe.
Jdance voted no smoke. Town tell.
Jones Jcrispy, and Benny vote me every game. Scummy, but not conclusive.
Matty is trying hard, but maybe too hard Null tell.

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Note that these are early and probably bad reads. Not enough posts to get anything better.

you're a midwit tier moron who is "confident" enough to "think" for themselves but too stupid to realize how faulty your reasoning process is.

I literally have zero thought as to who is scum and who is not, because it's completely fucking pointless. It's all nulls. I don't give a fuck.

This is self-conscious which I think is a bit scummy, but I agree with the low effort part.

I think low effort games make interactions too complex to solve, so I can't actually push that at all since I said something similar above.

Basic Thesis:
Mafia thrive on possibility; town thrive on probability.

You'd have to be high on WIFOM to think that I am "scum" in any regards while immediately taking actions in this game (forming a tribe immediately, posting a role PM) basically with no thought whatsoever.

There must have been some thought put into forming a tribe with me and Wingi specifically. Like, one reason could be that you're scum so if people want to vote you out they have to take me and Wingi with you.

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There's just nothing to do in this game. No "information" can or will be revealed, nothing: and it's not a surprise, the entire setup is a shitpost because ■■■ wordfiltered "signals" or thought it was college-level vocabulary on a middle school forum.

You want something that makes sense? There is a 1-1 scum split on @rejects and @degens. If they lynch a team with no scum on it, they're required to win the 50/50 and then win the LYLO. The other case they just need to win the LYLO.

If you want to play this game, or deduce some information, that is literally it.

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If there is a 2-0 scum split it doesn't matter if they signal or don't signal because they have to win a 50/50 no matter what.

So either there's a 2-0 scum party on my team or it's a 1-1 scum split between @degens and @rejects. That's it.

Yeah, I have had that thought already, but then I'd ask who would be more likely in the two tribes. And then I get paranoid and think that you and Benny would push that narrative to win.

Wingi didn't want to form a tribe with me because then he'd be stuck with me the whole game. If he can avoid that then he can get rid of me early.

You are confusing noise for signal.

Oh really?

You are contradicting yourself.

You see I make a few posts here in good-faith, and then I have the above. This is just a low-trust mafia society, it's basically impossible to play the game because of Low-IQ and personality disorders.

I somewhat agree with you, but I think the fun of mafia is that there is absolutely a narrative being spun and it is hypothetically possible to spot it even if in practice it's "impossible".

I really don't think there's anything to be developed after 1-1 splits @reject/@degen and 2-0 @sigkill.

Let's say we think we're within the 2-0 SIGKILL setup, and we kill SIGKILL, but there are no mafia members on it (actually 1-1): we eventually go to LYLO, and have a 50/50.

Let's say we think we're in the 1-1 setup, we kill SIGKILL, we go to LYLO, and have a 50/50.

There's a difference in the likelihood of rolling a 1-1 vs 2-0, no? So you should be able to compute whatever is most likely.

It's just gossip: this game is just gossip. Your reads lists are "gossip". Your ISOs are "gossip". You aren't capable to construct a narrative with characters, motivations, whatever.