Two Prophets

General
1

Two prophets.
The accuracy of the first prophet's prophecy is 90%.
The accuracy of the second prophet's prophecy is 30%.
They both predicted the end of the world.
What's the probability of the end of the world?

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2

it's a binary outcome: if the second prophet predicts something, you can just put a NOT gate and just get 70% accuracy from the prophet.

3

Ok.
90% accuracy prophet predicted The world will end.
70% accuracy prophet predicted the world will NOT end.

4

.9*.3+.9*.7+.1*.3 or 93%?

5

I totally forget how this go

6

@jdance help

7

I have not actually taken a probability class but im pretty sure these are usually logic questions and the answer is not defined because the wizards contradict each other

8

Note my answer might be nonsense

9

Revisiting a real classic here

2 Likes
10

@electrowizard explained this once before.

11

I think @Matticus made a 2d grid of the solution too.

2 Likes
12

@ass perhaps we need to implement the fabled hypergeometric distribution to solve this problem :thinking:

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13

should probably queue up torch freeze mage on the Wild ladder....