Carnival of Horrors Day 2

[electrowizard]

@Osiris

In a world where 1 scum is in ian/magic I'd wager there's a second in iaafr/sdad/hbotz for how they're playing around it. Sdad specifically is seemingly drawing attention away from the discussion spawned about ian to go after epok. Not necessarily scummy but certainly a bit divisive for town. We still have 3 pretty low effort players at this point so lynching one here isn't terrible but it still gives scum plenty of options for nominations without getting us max info from lynching imo

I'm thinking of reading this as a TMI game. Magic tunneling wolfy and only flipping off to ian at the last second because he saw that wolfy was a dead end. Osiris was meh for me almost all day, just echoing and adding nothing new, but then he posted this and I largely started agreeing with it. Well, except for the iaafr part. But I almost always townlean him in any game, which is probably bad.

@SCSF

i think i’m starting to warm to this line of reasoning. gun to my head right now i think neither ewiz or wolfy are scummy, and it seems like ian especially, and magic recently, have been drumming up this rivalry to basically take up the whole thread, as well as some other posters to a lesser extent.

somewhat worried that they might use nk to try and get a free mislynch on one of the two. of course assuming my gut is correct on the reads

@SCSF

the other posters include hbotz btw. but to a lesser extent than ian

This was SCSF's response. Disregarding the last line, he seems to suss magic too for a good reason.

@SCSF

not sure how you say "magic/ewiz + wolfy teams are both viable", yet you somehow don't think ian is sus despite ian basically doing what magic has done but worse/more scummy? this reads to me like hubotz + ian + 1 (possibly ersu), which would work with my initial reads.

His response to the nonsense "magic/ewiz + wolfy teams" post by hbotz. Pretty good, but a low-level read thinking hbotz and ian would defend each other so openly. Kind of ignoring the TMI reason for why hbotz became sus.

I'm buying osiris scum after iso'ing the interactions with hbotz. I also forgot another bad hbotz post, explaining how he got the "magic/ewiz + wolfy" teams thing:

@hbotz

d1 bus is rare but d1 pseudobus into lynch someone else is plausible. somehow three people were sussing wolfy at the same time and yet no votes never landed. i think its a serious stretch to townread wolfy based on ian being mafia.

tbh ur doing it again where u are starting to townread ian based on me being mafia. maybe ur just seeing ghosts but in my opinion this kind of indirect read basically just doesnt work because you have to multiply the probability you actually correctly guessed mafia by the probability you correctly read the interaction which nukes the bite of your read.

the best thing coming out of today is gonna be testing ian. i still much prefer to flip to wolfy/SuPA (i dont lend his opening much credence, it seems like he just forced a 'reaction test' on scsf who also just showed up)

First paragraph is wrong: wolfy had numerous votes on him almost all day. Second paragraph is nonsensical. The quote below explains why. Third paragraph is a TMI tell but him also pushing ian because he realized he was the only other one on the chopping block day 1.

@electrowizard

Umm, I'm not really townreading ian. I think I was off when I said you being scum clears him. And it's not reading the interaction: it's the fact that none of your reasoning has made any sense or been factual all game. It all seems like TMI or just trying to push something.

I admitted I was wrong about saying hbotz scum clears ian. But I still believed and never recanted that ian town almost certainly makes hbotz scum.