Carnival of Horrors Day 2

[iaafr]

not a fan of thinking thru this kinda stuff from the wifom angle

gonna evaluate the day 1s of all 3 later

[electrowizard]

@electrowizard

if @hbotz is scum, I would probably guess @ian is town. I think the converse is true: ian town implies hbotz is scum. I'm not sure that ian scum implies hbotz town, though. I do think scum wouldn't make helping each other this obvious with daychat, but I could be wrong there.

And rereading his reasoning on ian, hbotz said that ian wouldn't force the syntax based "scumslip" on me without following it up. But ian did follow it up: just not well. That kind of tosses out his reasoning on ian making any sense.

@electrowizard

His reasoning on ian being town is that ian didn't follow-up on what he viewed as me making a scumslip. But ian did, and he continued/continues to push it. So, either hbotz is town and bad at reasoning/missed it (which could mean ian scum or ian town), hbotz is scum and ian is town which hbotz knows through TMI, or they're both scum with hbotz defending ian.

@hbotz

if you wanted me to pick a lynch id just lynch wolfy. but nobody is voting wolfy. based on the gameplay flow if we lynch scum on outside id honestly say magic/ewiz + wolfy teams are both viable so no matter what mafia we find id never end up clearing him

@electrowizard

? How are those possible teams? I spent all day pushing wolfy, flipped on him once and went back to scum, and I've also sussed magic the whole time? Reasoning?

@electrowizard

@mafiabot lynch @hbotz

Reasoning off all game. Buying into the TMI stuff more and more

hbotz is definitely scum and we need to look through his interactions. I was thinking osiris scum at first too, but I found some good posts. Will do my SCSF and Osiris walkthroughs next.

[sdadasdas]

Can you name which 3 players you would send in as scum? Also, would you send in yourself?

[iaafr]

I honestly half expected myself in the pool

idk if I wasn't included due to my reads sucking this game or some other wifom reason I haven't thought of

I mean I also consider supa cleared and therefore would've considered putting him in, mentioned that earlier, with only like hbotz sussing? again that assumes hbotz town though

long story short this questions too open ended because I don't even know who my partners and the gamestate would be

I don't think I'd put myself in the pool but it probably depends on my scumteam, if I had a scumteam that wanted to do more crazy shit, I'd probably oblige

what about you? what are you getting out of this q

[sdadasdas]

What I'm getting out of this is that you can't name 3 names from the hip and are repeatedly dodging the question

[iaafr]

this doesn't make sense as a gotcha

I can tell by the way you have just gotchaed a town player

[iaafr]

what's ur answer anyhow

[SCSF]

maybe i was also picked since my scum team was right? I was the first to sus hbotz:

@SCSF

I'm getting the most scum vibes currently from hubotz and ersu

hubotz (or hbotz) because he has posted very little of substance (just egging other peoples arguments on or passively commenting without adding anything) and he also seems to be playing with a perspective that has more info than he should

and ersu because he is tunneling the ewiz vs. wolfy scenario, which I think is not the right way to go for day 1. He's also griefing.

[sdadasdas]

I will give my answer after you give yours. Name 3

[iaafr]

plausible imo

actually I should revisit ersu that'll go on the list

don't like rereading d1 on mobile tho

[iaafr]

I honestly can't think this q thru because I can't imagine without knowing who the scum and town are in the hypothetical

I just put all 3 whoever is hardest to lynch down the line imo, that's how I always do nks

[sdadasdas]

Alright, who are those 3? Lets assume everyone is town except yourself.

[electrowizard]

@Osiris

In a world where 1 scum is in ian/magic I'd wager there's a second in iaafr/sdad/hbotz for how they're playing around it. Sdad specifically is seemingly drawing attention away from the discussion spawned about ian to go after epok. Not necessarily scummy but certainly a bit divisive for town. We still have 3 pretty low effort players at this point so lynching one here isn't terrible but it still gives scum plenty of options for nominations without getting us max info from lynching imo

I'm thinking of reading this as a TMI game. Magic tunneling wolfy and only flipping off to ian at the last second because he saw that wolfy was a dead end. Osiris was meh for me almost all day, just echoing and adding nothing new, but then he posted this and I largely started agreeing with it. Well, except for the iaafr part. But I almost always townlean him in any game, which is probably bad.

@SCSF

i think i’m starting to warm to this line of reasoning. gun to my head right now i think neither ewiz or wolfy are scummy, and it seems like ian especially, and magic recently, have been drumming up this rivalry to basically take up the whole thread, as well as some other posters to a lesser extent.

somewhat worried that they might use nk to try and get a free mislynch on one of the two. of course assuming my gut is correct on the reads

@SCSF

the other posters include hbotz btw. but to a lesser extent than ian

This was SCSF's response. Disregarding the last line, he seems to suss magic too for a good reason.

@SCSF

not sure how you say "magic/ewiz + wolfy teams are both viable", yet you somehow don't think ian is sus despite ian basically doing what magic has done but worse/more scummy? this reads to me like hubotz + ian + 1 (possibly ersu), which would work with my initial reads.

His response to the nonsense "magic/ewiz + wolfy teams" post by hbotz. Pretty good, but a low-level read thinking hbotz and ian would defend each other so openly. Kind of ignoring the TMI reason for why hbotz became sus.

I'm buying osiris scum after iso'ing the interactions with hbotz. I also forgot another bad hbotz post, explaining how he got the "magic/ewiz + wolfy" teams thing:

@hbotz

d1 bus is rare but d1 pseudobus into lynch someone else is plausible. somehow three people were sussing wolfy at the same time and yet no votes never landed. i think its a serious stretch to townread wolfy based on ian being mafia.

tbh ur doing it again where u are starting to townread ian based on me being mafia. maybe ur just seeing ghosts but in my opinion this kind of indirect read basically just doesnt work because you have to multiply the probability you actually correctly guessed mafia by the probability you correctly read the interaction which nukes the bite of your read.

the best thing coming out of today is gonna be testing ian. i still much prefer to flip to wolfy/SuPA (i dont lend his opening much credence, it seems like he just forced a 'reaction test' on scsf who also just showed up)

First paragraph is wrong: wolfy had numerous votes on him almost all day. Second paragraph is nonsensical. The quote below explains why. Third paragraph is a TMI tell but him also pushing ian because he realized he was the only other one on the chopping block day 1.

@electrowizard

Umm, I'm not really townreading ian. I think I was off when I said you being scum clears him. And it's not reading the interaction: it's the fact that none of your reasoning has made any sense or been factual all game. It all seems like TMI or just trying to push something.

I admitted I was wrong about saying hbotz scum clears ian. But I still believed and never recanted that ian town almost certainly makes hbotz scum.

[iaafr]

still doesn't make sense and still don't have an answer sorry

[magicmagininja]

@electrowizard

Magic tunneling wolfy and only flipping off to ian at the last second because he saw that wolfy was a dead end.

Carnival of Horrors Mafia Day 1

@supa is subbing for @wolfy

Carnival of Horrors Mafia Day 1

Alright looks like wolfy is not scum? Hm. Apologies to wolfy then

This is a mischaracterization and ewiz knows it.

[sdadasdas]

It's not a hard question, at this point it's identical to asking you to name your top 3 townreads, can you give us those?

[magicmagininja]

Carnival of Horrors Mafia Day 1

wolfy got subbed so im tring him (now supa)

[electrowizard]

Well, iaafr actually did the hbotz stuff earlier with the TMI on hbotz hard townreading ian (which he flipped on right near the EoD).

I'm not sure of your ersu reasoning still: the post you cited was him not reading past where wolfy and I stopped our shit, so that was the only thing to really focus in on. The griefing is annoying, but I found town usually griefed more than scum.

Not townleaning ersu, but we need to form a different line of reasoning.

[iaafr]

well I was already townreading magic and he just got nommed

still townreading supa but again it wouldn't necessarily be about my own personal townread if I think town might ml him down the line

then ewiz or you? if either are town, should be nommed imo, part of why I'm starting to consider ewiz more

[iaafr]

still think ewizs perspective is fine tho

sdad do you have thoughts on hbotz and other stuff ewiz and scsf have been talking about?