Carnival of Horrors Mafia Day 3

Scum 100%. Town has no reason to not take a side unless they're completely neutral. The only possible issue is them being worried they're gonna mislynch town, but even a slight read would make it better than 50/50 so town wouldn't switch onto an impossible lynch that close to EoD

my personal worldview is that 2/3 of players simply make a gut read / random guess then subconsciously retroactively justify it, so i generally dont expect logically sound arguments in the first place. if i was trying to play with rigorous logical standards i would have policylynched iaafr and scsf long ago for making no sense.

perhaps you respect me and sdad to the point where you expect some logical standard. but u also claimed my reads make no sense... and i certainly think my own reads make sense... so its kind of difficult to see things your way yanno

the way i see it ewiz gameplay is
hmm wolfy is scummy
hmm theres NO WAY ian could townread wolfy ian is scummy
hmm theres NO WAY hbotz could townread ian hbotz is scummy
hmm theres NO WAY sdad could townread hbotz sdad is scummy

its like ur just jumping from place to place. at best ur seeing ghosts but it seems to me sdad is more likely to be playing in good faith than you.

That's because you assume people always have perfectly logical reasonings that check out regarding their reads, which is more than often not the case. Even if two reads have contradictory reasons, they might haven't even considered that when they thought about the reads individually

did sdad and hbotz just both defend sdad in the same exact way lmao

I do see it. I said that shit opening day 2 which makes me think you're buddying me

why would you jump to assuming im buddying you rather than we're both town who see the same thing and we're likely right because town mindmelds r like dank

like what

yeah we outed ourselves. damn hbotz I told you in scumchat I would respond!

That's the point! It's subconscious reasoning, so your reasons for one read and another end up being internally consistent. Scum has to consciously reason, so they end up using different methods to justify different reads, ending up with reasons for different reads that aren't internally consistent.

See: sdad reasoning on epok vs sdad reasoning on ersu

I'm town I told you

You're still going on about that dumbass shit huh? What was internally different between those two?

that just do how it be

also i think ur recent few posts are pretty good :slight_smile:

im pretty confident 3 mafia in
epok ewiz Supa ersu sdadasdas.

i will have to decide later if this is a bus but im tending towards no atm

sdad looking towny with all his answers, I'm inclined to think he is town this game.
scsf town
osiris I will say TR lean

Iaafr idk mid ground

ewiz scum lean - there has been way too much tunneling imo, it feels like he is taking towns lead without really considering other reads trying to be "our fuhrer"

hbotz idk whats his deal with me, that's some sketch ass tunneling that you can later turn into "Oh he didn't post much and wolfy was scummy" thing

Ersu is most likely scum

No, the argument there was that taking a side and saying you're doing it because you like one person and not another is something scum would pull. It lets them have a natural excuse for their mislynches.

No, the argument there was that it did seem like your level of confidence was not warranted given what Ian had posted

Idk you're just making me really nervous so far this game. Like you're afraid to lead anything

ppl are very good at making up messed-up internally inconsistent reasons for things they do just cuz they feel like it. this goes beyond mafia, thats just how humans operate in general.

in mafia most reads are just dressed up tone reads. i think my read on ian and sdad's read on me are just dressed-up tone reads. as far as i can tell all sdad ever really said is "hbotz sounds towny to me".

Just rechecked i thought you ended on isn but instead it was hbotz. Think i was confusing you and supa for dome reason. Dunno how that mskes me feel tbh

i lead when im confident

i thought i was gonna come in today leading the charge on kiling sdad but

ive already lost it idk

either way im town so you should probably still be pushing outside of me imho but u do u i guess

Can you explain how my reads on these weren't internally consistent?

Actually iaafr probably scum lean - when he's town its usually super obvious, I can't read it as well this game though

Actually, my argument here wasn't based around you at all. My big push started with the stuff sdad talked about with how scum would've constructed the pool if they put scum in it, which was awful. Then it went to the ersu/epok contradiction which hammered it home for me.

I'd been sussing him already and only minorly pushing for semi-afking and avoiding making any reads of his own or explaining them