The guy has people convinced he is talking to the lord and they keep giving him power
He did like a preach and half the people gave him their coins, and the other half were basically forced to follow suit because if someone didnt reach enough coins they would all get eliminated
Probably actually mirroring how power structures have interracted with religion throughout history
The worst part of your thesis is thinking that markets act rationally on any meaningful time scale
Company A is rumored to be unveiling a new product.
Its the day of the revealing
What factors are currently driving the price action of the stock?
Give me two detailed series of events that could occur AFTER the unveiling based on the price action of the stock before the reveal takes place
You're misunderstanding a few things about my tool, I already said it would be specific to crude oil and natural gas, not stocks so it doesn't take into account something like quarterly earnings, but it does take into account the time of year because both commodities are seasonal.
To use your example of how to explain when fundamentals do not align with market direction i.e. really bearish storage report or weather but the price goes up, why? There's a lot of factors, such as rising exports outside of the domestic market, or logistical problems due to severe weather, etc...
Regarding the idea that nobody has tried it, yes people have tried it, and yes there are rich portfolio managers who pay a lot of money to hire very hard working and smart people, but the strategies they employ are not what I am doing. The stuff I am doing is not even in the same ball park and the money isn't worth it for them because my method is still too high risk in their eyes. Why even bet on something when you can completely take the betting out of the equation by arbitraging instead or front running orders?
Now, smaller trade shops might still be employing some of the stuff that I plan on doing, but so what? If we end up concluding the same trade lines, it doesn't help or hurt them. What I am predicting is the weather in a financial market sense, when I see a big storm coming, I hedge and prepare for it, and reap the rewards. When I have predicted the weather correctly, I make good money but when I do not, I recognize why I made mistakes and it always circles back to my poor self control in not following my system for selecting trades. If I had a real system that materialized and measured what I already do in my head but on a larger scale and more accurately, it will help me to exercise better trigger discipline.
What the heck
This is quite literally exactly what every single person in the market does and the analogy to weather is quite hilarious because it is nearly impossible to forecast weather with any accuracy about t+5days
The idea that X happened therefore the price should go up but it didn't. Why come?
This is a product of having a over-simplified model that you are basing your prediction on. Your model said the price would go up, but your model was bad because you used the wrong features, or not enough features to make that determination. Rather than asking why didn't the price go up when my feature X correlated and predicted a price increase, ask yourself why is my model so bad that it predicts the polar opposite of what happened in reality?
I didnt say i had a model. I was asking why the price didnt go up
I said i am a model
The question was a bait. There is no answer to that question. You cannot build a model to accurately assess what will happen over a short term. Its not possible
I mean a model in your head. Everyone has a model in their head on expected behavior (output) based on current conditions (input).
If you think bad earnings should immediately manifest as a drop in the stock price, then that is an assumption you've attained from a bad model in your head that says 'bad earnings = low stock price' when we can clearly see that is not always the case therefore you need to find the other features that you previously ignored besides earnings that would explain the divergence.
#danced
Accurately is a misnomer. Let's say of my manual trades, I am successful 70% of the time, and if I were to use this tool to assess my own trades based on the metrics I calculate in my head, but this does it and summarizes into a report which subsequently raises the number of successful bets I have to 80%, then that is a win in my book, even if you say it's not accurate because it still has a 'failure' rate of 20% whatever that means.
Luckily for us all your hit rate seems to be about 10%
Dog this is an insane performance from you
Lets hedge our expectations here and try to get your win percentage to 51%
The market is a constantly evolving machine and any strategy that works for a short period of time is guaranteed to not continue to work over a long period of time as that winning strategy gets front run and the other side of the trade gets taken