You cannot dynamically account for this. Its not possible
Even the strategy of "put it in voo and forget it" will fail
Fail is a subjective term. If you dumped your money into SPY/ QQQ that did not fail, and even if it drops 50% at one point but is still 100% higher than the point you bought it, is that failing son?
First of all you do not have the patience to wait for 100% gains over 7 years so this scenario doesnt exist for you
Second, it depends, are you old and need to live off that money? Was there a giant surge of inflation? Could you have invested that money in yourself to increase your net worth more over that same period? There are a multitude of very real circumstances in which you "failed" by using the strategy that seems to work for forever
I'm just using pandas and scikit-learn, at least that's all that I'm gonna use right now. Keep it simple then build out once you have something functional.
Time periods where the markets do not go up for 20 years happen. They are inevitable
You're wrong, I got a 401k and pension from my job, totaling over 300k that I am just sitting and letting build up. With that said, I recently went full bitch mode and liquidated to 80% cash on my retirement because I am convinced Trump is gonna lead us into a stock market recession in the next year or 2.
I'm still in crypto, but I liquidated a lot of my crypto stocks too, took a loss on miners already.
I have a IBKR account which I am trading under 10k USD on and I made 25k so I withdrew 20k and am playing with the remaining 15k, but I lost almost all of it so I put int some money from the profit I took out back into my IBKR account today XD
Yeah of course you didnt fuck up the 401k because you likely dont have control over it and would incur a penalty for taking it early
I agree that trump is bad for the economy but i think a depression is infinitely more likely
Yea, the 401k is a good idea. Stops people like me from shooting myself in the foot because the biggest risk I can take is putting my money into an emerging market fund, or 100% stock and 0% bonds.
I am also 100% cash and have no intention of changing that for a long period of time
Get to reading case studies my guy. Get through like 30 case studies of various recessions that interest you and then report back
Well, I dumped it into VMFXX and STIP to make interest
I also bought BABA and XIACY today because I think the Chinese government is basically going gung ho behind these companies to compete with the USA and I think they're gonna be a good hold / insulated from the US stock market although everything is globalized these days so a big crash in the USA will affect the Chinese market, but I think less so... Anyway I'm still diversified and buying stock when I see a good opportuinty. I just purchased US steel (X) last week too because I think with the government intervention it should be a solid buy. Tarriffs on steel also should boost their sales a bit, but not a lot because even with tarriffs the steel is more expensive than foreign sourced.
Your base case is a us recession and you are buying equities that will be impacted by a us recession
TBH the only thing that isn't affected by a stock crash is bonds/cash/money market. Even gold/bitcoin crashes when the markets crash.
But it's gonna feel bad sitting there watching your account move up 2% when the market ripped up 20% this year, potentially XD
It feels infinitely less worse than your portfolio going down 50%
Really you should just full port whichever country starts to brain drain our intellectuals as we become more fascist ala europe -> usa and the ifsa from the 1930s and 40s
What you aren't predicting is weather in the real sense.
It's 6 degrees here. In Texas. Right now.
Snowing across the entire US.
Shorting natural gas right now is not smart.
The intellectuals in question:
Can you name a single contemporary intellectual?