just needs to refine his process (having a panic attack each individual dip, selling off, and starting over every week for multiple years straight)
I'm afraid that might be true and I need to stop trying to become an active trader. I'm not disciplined enough so I think I should just stick to working because my risk management is too poor even for starting a business too perhaps.
The only difference between me being considered smart and dumb with these trades are results. If my results were good I'd be a genius but because my trades haven't popped off I'm considered stupid.
I have been getting a mix of good and bad results but mostly bad lately. 
Brothers, come join me in this Namafia rain dance ceremony to have the gods bring downfall to natural gas prices.
After taking a long walk I think the geopolitics of the situation may outweigh the fundamentals of weather however I think the Ukraine fallout is overblown but a part of me is also worried this is the beginning of something bigger that is going to cause commodity prices to rise across the board.
Dance. Dance. Dance.
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You are as gone as plasma
Ukraine exports aren’t that significant tho, unless you had some other idea in mind. Commodity prices would be much more likely to shoot up due to tariffs
#stoved
Yea this has been one of the most brutal runs I've seen in a long time like when Russia invaded Ukraine but the fundamentals don't justify the rise which is why I am convinced it's a stupid squeeze. I ate so much loss. Still short but moved my position up to a higher strike.
I'm up 600 dollars and completely fucked.
Canada cutting off energy to the united states as tariff retaliation isnt justified?
You are truly an absolute fucking moron
It's the type of news that isn't substantial and would cause a temporary rise but nothing of this magnitude over the last 3 days. The reason is that storage is down substantially from the 5 year avg and there are more cold days ahead in March therefore the rise right now is threading the needle to squeeze more value before the end of winter weather arrives. Basically it will drop like a stone in the next 3 weeks but it rocketed up so hard I got mega fucked for opening my position too soon. I based my confidence on the range March trades relative to Feb each year and other stuff but yea the storage being below avg apparently combined with higher lng exports is driving the current run but once the weather warms the demand dies until summer.
The storage being below avg and not recovering come may is going to look like a good long opportunity in July Aug imo.
You have constructed a series of parameters in your head which do not match reality
Look at natural gas on the ukraine invasion and the following 2 years and tell me what you see
Then ask yourself: are the recent tariffs the end of the policy uncertainty or the beginning of a trade war
Then ask yourself another question: What does uncertainty and ambiguity mean for the price of energy?
Trump just enacted 10% tariffs on energy but fuel price is up 16%. Interesting!
The only way to profit on efficient markets is to bet on miracles
Based on your logic crude oil should also be moving in tandem but it's on a downtrend. You're basically doing the same thing you're accusing me of.