By all means keep rolling the dice. The hedge funds enjoy the passive income you are providing
Oil is in a downtrend because opec just increased production and economic downturn is on the horizon ie reduced demand
People always need to heat their homes and businesses
Notice how the price of crude is down yet the price of gas is up?
If it was summer right now gas would be like 3.60
So basically you're saying gas is going to continue up this month and crude oil is going down. That is a reasonable hypothesis, nothing is guaranteed though. Gas is extremely volatile this time of year and the demand drop from winter to spring is real and happens l every year barring extreme circumstances again, I don't think a 10% tarrifs and hand waving empty threats from a single politician is substantial enough to justify a 40% increase in a week but hey if that doesn't seem like overbought Territory and a good short then to each his own, you can always put your money down and bet too if you're so confident I'm wrong.
Hand waiving? The tariffs are in place
Even if these tariffs come down in a few months, trump has still created an insane amount of uncertainty. You cannot operate a business when policy changes 180 degrees every single day based on the whims of a lunical madman
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Business owners will not take the risk of setting up shop somewhere when the president can instantly bankrupt your business with the stroke of a pen
ie, uncertainty
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Referring to Canada cutting off energy to the USA.
They did a 25% retaliatory tariff that is live now
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Gas prices: tariffed 10% up 16%
Natural gas: tariffed 25% up 40%
Take the tariff percentage and multiply it by 1.6 for the true price increase
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The game theory is that they likely fall if those tariffs stay in place for longer periods of times, down to their nominal percentages.
The more threats, the more uncertainty, the hire the multiplier
You are basically betting on trump not being a ■■■■■■
i dont see any resolution where the tariffs do anything that isn't just negative
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if theyre intended to be some intimidation tactic to urge countries to deals with better terms for us they're way too bombastic and have too little followup to really be effective at anything other than destabilizing the economy. its not a ball in their court sort of thing to do that and have it work in any meaningful way
we saw a bit of it with the canada thing but given how that went i dont think other countries will feel much faith towards ours being reasonable
Just threw 1k into daily puts for CL at 66. If CL tanks today then these will print money. I'm hoping to see sub 66, and sub 65 I'll jizz.
Lol all these have done is make the rest of the world view us like a joke the way smart people within this country have been viewing the gop for fucking years. Now it's out on full display. Concepts of a plan, just like me having concepts of a trade.
You might as well let me be president altho I'd do the same shit job but the point is the job is shit right now.
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you don't really get deals with better terms by violating existing trade agreements
Crude puts are printing. Tywin good thing you mentioned the opec thing I didn't look it up till you said that on the forum. I just thought it was dropping like normal because of the monthly trend and the opec news basically gave it reason to bottom further and I saw there was a bounce up so prob gonna drop even further without support. Great day for me. I negated half of my losses so far but I'm gonna let this ride a bit more... Options are ITM so I'm not afraid of them expiring in 2 hours from now.