Saying the market isn't manipulated is exactly what someone who is manipulating the market would say
schizo paranoid thinking
You are kind of a helpless individual
Personality disorder and drug addict is not an uncommon combination I'd reckon
it exacerbates it
I wake up hoping to see NG gap down and instead it is up 25 cents. That might be it, I think the market might be fucked. Debating if I should get out and eat the loss or hold out hope for a drop back down to 3.8 since I have 2weeks left on the options. Options are worth 2.5k at this point so I'm not sure if I wanna sell as if it does rip back I'll regret so prob gonna let it ride at this point. Fuck man.
.
Yea it might be time
Theres still time to give me your money so i can do this for you
Let us collaborate. Do you think it will drop below 3.80 in the next 2 weeks?
Well that's the only hope I have left. Close out and go long. That's an option too I can purchase 1 ATM call for the price of closing out.
Do you think the biggest driver for the price right now are tarrifs? It's so funny because even if gas is tarrifed higher I envisioned less gas being used overall due to the warm up.
I really had a different idea of how this was going to play out. Maybe my timing is just wrong and the event is still going to occur.
My brain is melting from this shit. It's so fucking weird man because sometimes I'm just so on the money with my calls like BABA and Xiacy ripping up after they were invited to sit down to the CCP leadership.
I just want to understand how I got this so fucking wrong. It's not that I thought it would go up a little and it ripped up, or I thought it would go sideways and it ripped up, but that I thought it was going to crash and it ripped up. Jesus christ it's like you're just looking in opposite land and the model in your head is all fucked up and twisted because clearly there's some mistake in there that is making it not aligned to reality.
I think the common factor here is politics seems to have more clout at driving the prices than actual supply and demand. If you look at the money you can see institutional traders all went long on NG while retail went short lol. NG is a very thin market compared to CL since it is mostly representative of the US market so there is a real possibility of a short squeeze happening too moreso than in a commodity like CL or a ticker like SPY.
You can see from commitment of traders
I mean how can the price for something be going up if no one is buying it, or significantly fewer people are buying it than earlier when the price was lower than now? The EIA storage reports show demand is dropping but the futures price is driving up because the expectation is the price will be higher at the end of the month than now due to tarrifs? There is currently colder weather forecast for mid March onward but 2 weeks out could be anyone's guess. Yes maybe weather forecast was enough... 
New canadian prime minister stating that canada will not back of tariffs until the US shows respect
And the actions trump will take in response
NG will trend upward
You are best off correlating anxiety of uncertainty to price than fundamentals to price in this market state
Dude the tarrifs are such bullshit from Trump, how have people not realized this guy is full of shit and doesn't do a single fucking thing he claims like taking over Gaza, clearing the swamp, doge, and now this shit. LOL IS THIS REAL? Just trade the fucking news fuck fundamentals. But real talk the weather is getting more bullish and I might be living in denial. Need to look at the weather models again.
Weather has a considerably lower correlation to price than politics in THIS moment. This will not always be true
Here's the thing, I was calling it short since 3.45 so the fact that it has gone up to 4.65 in a month time span while demand is concurrently dropping is ludicrous to me and doesn't make sense. Who is buying the gas if demand is dropping? Therefore I feel like the futures market is being fucked with a squeeze. This happened to me 2 years ago too. I do actually give way too much clout to weather. Letting the weather drive my decisions has fucked me hard again, and honestly it's true that I do a lot better on CL for this reason because I only trade the news and not seasonal supply and demand.
At this point I am holding my puts because a lot can happen in 2 weeks time but this has been a good learning lesson. I'm grateful to still have money in my account to lose to try again and do better.
Lord Emperor Trump Guide us
Bro these facilities use weather projections to dictate production too.
If ng drops so low, facilities stop producing, costs go up
Nothing is as certain as you think it is
You know the second I close my position they're gonna call off tarrifs and this shit is gonna bottom out. Lol. I just can't. But maybe I should reduce my position. Idk. Fuck me. 
Everytime I goes up I keep saying it's done maybe we really are gonna see 5.5 this month.
Still
I'm going to use sklearn to implement a strategy similar to this device
