53% 53???
Math checks out. But not a very fun way to play a game for a +3% chance to win.
Iām fairly certain that math is correct using that solution, but I think thereās a significantly better solve.
Select one player at random to be spared. Select another random player to be spared. (Two players spared total). Perform that execution style on the remaining 8 players.
Perhaps even better would be if the first player is considered good, donāt select the second player at random but instead have that player interview other players over the course of the day to determine his āpartnerā. (This is optional and conditional on the player being considered good).
I havenāt done the math but thatās probably about a 60%+ winrate.
Youāre going to need to elaborate.
What I was thinking was that the spared players would be considered town, else town loses.
Itās worse than 50% actually. mafia should vote completely randomly on the 50/50s.
Consider situations A/C where itās LYLO D2; when town hits mafia 50% D2, the games goes to 4t/1m, but town learns nothing new as to the identity of the second mafia if they vote randomly. Mafia then NKās down to 3/1, then NKās down to 2/1. Town then has to hit a 1/3rd to win the game.
I am proud that I did some research before hosting this setup. And that I tried to find ways to break it. I think I did ok.
My mentor for running a mafia game was @roragok. I asked him about balance. He told me that if you have to decide between making a balanced game and making a fun game, go for fun over balance.
I think I did my best to get the best of both in this setup.
@jones @Matticus @sdadasdas have you looked at these setups? You would be so good in these games.
edit: added Klaze.
This game was definitely difficult to solve with much higher than 50% town winrate, especially since itās a unique/new setup that we couldnāt think about prior to D1 starting. I think you did a good job.
Even if the solution as stated wasnāt better than the original, it might be a good jumping off point with the spared players since I think the intersection of those is ~62% being both town. (Union for mafia)
A = 80%, B = 77%, so the winrate is 61.6% at best if we think that if mafia rolls into a ādefinitive goodā they win 100%, which is probably likely.
If we consider perfect play, I think itās maybe(?) possible to identify which setup youāre playing on townās side, but thereās definitley -EV in a real game due to it most likely being unidentifiable.
Complexity fucking explodes on the execution/victim setup, A/B can shoot/canāt shoot on D2.
This has to be simulated.
itās not possible to identify which setup youāre in, nevermind.
This is awful. Iām guestimating this setup to be even lower winrate because itās too fucking complex.
TOO fucking complex.
this is getting to the point of Lurie complex.
n e w g a m e w h e n
Next game is afyer we figure out the rate of the expa Sidon of the u dovserse
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Translation: Next game is after we figure out the rate of the expansion of the universe.
I wish I had a copypasta of that Lurie post.
Yeah, we didnāt know the exact setup and I was solving for 3 scum on the first day which makes all of these coordinated solutions <50% winrate (I think).