We dont know the odds of life forming. It could be 1 in a billion over a certain period of time. It could be much, much worse. Humans have bad intuition with probabilities and large numbers in general.
If life had a 52! chance of developing anywhere in the universe per second, how many life forms do you think would have existed/exist right now?
it's entirely possible that aliens USED to exist, and wiped each other out in massive genocidal wars millions of years ago, such that all sapient civilisations now live in fear of revealing their position and being purged. it would explain why everything is so dark.
a deer who looks around an empty forest and wonders why there is such a lack of other life wouldn't think it's because that life is hiding from a predator, they would think they were alone in the forest.
there are planets made of solid ethane or diamond. yea life seems to be a really rare resource but there's plenty of chances. more chances than grains of sand on our planet's beaches
wrong actually i've specifically researched this exact topic and the leading school of thought is "it's probably a lot more likely than we previously thought"
Did you know that every time you randomly shuffle a deck of cards you almost certainly deal those cards in an order that has never been dealt before in history
"life" can mean bacteria in this case, but as we've seen, directly evidenced from how life evolved on earth, that's all you need.
single celled organisms and water can evolve into a massive cornucopia of life
i'm willing to accept we may be early, or even the first, but the idea we're alone or will always be alone is absurd. it's simply absurd.
I think humans have bad intuitions about numbers and are lonely
100 million to the power of 100 billion. the odds of intelligent life forming would have to be PREEEEETTTY fucking low for us to end up being the only one.
it's just an absurd positon.
be that as it may, it doesn't mean i'm wrong here
Peep this
go deeper, what are the odds an intelligent lifeform develops atomic weapons, survives that period of existence, develops ftl travel, then wants to contact or be seen by other life
youtube algo already tried to get me to watch that several times, so chances are i'll find it interesting. i'll check it out
i'm not denying you have a stronger grasp of numbers and advanced math and statistics than I do, but I think you haven't put enough thought into cosmic sociology and the scale of the universe. i think if you did you'd come to the same conclusion as me.
i'll admit it's incredible fucking small
but 100 million to the power of 100 billion is a really, really, really, really, REALLY enormous number.
and the whole "developing dangerous weapons and almost wiping each other out" part may not apply to many species who aren't as inherently aggresive as us.
and yet however small those odds are, they happened right? I think that's your point.
however unlikely it is that we would be here, right now, having this conversation, it happened. here we are.
so the idea it could happen elsewhere is only logical.
nah man the only remotely defendable position on no other intelligent life existing is "God made us in 'his' image and we're the supreme lifeform". the numbers are way too stacked otherwise for life to not exist
yep. agreed.
that was my point. intelligent life has to develop. likely splits the atom. doesn't kill itself in the interim. develops ftl travel/communication. then wants to contact or be noticed by others
yeah i got what you meant